EnviroLink Forum

"Methane clathrate, also known commonly as methane hydrate, is a form of water ice that contains a large amount of methane within its crystal structure. Potentially large deposits of methane clathrate have been found under sediments on the ocean floors of the Earth"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
The huge Siberian methane blowholes of 2014 were Methane Clathrate Guns in its smaller effect. I used to make silver fulminate in my youth, and methane clathrate is VERY similar. Without ignition it is 100 times the heat trapping of CO2 for the first 20 years. Its stability is only with lower temperature and depth. It explosively releases with seaquakes, or as little as a 2*F temperature rise. The Siberian deposits are legendary, and 50GTs of it are ready to release, it very rapidly expands to 169 times its volume. That is just the beginning.......
Like nitroglycerin without fire. Arctic surface temperature goes +5*C or more and it starts below the surface. It is now +6*C over in the Arctic. The 50GTs of it are equivalent to 5000GTs of CO2, compared to the HGHG annual of ~33GT. Then the tundra total with all the ocean deposits is another 1000GTs, or 100K GTs of CO2, and the H2O vapor, and nitrous gases, among others. That puts the surface temperature beyond the boiling point of water. As a worst case scenario, but even an 80% turnover would would eliminate all but thermal vent life.
http://guymcpherson.com/2015/03/for-tho ... of-humans/
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/02 ... -2031.html
http://planetextinction.com/planet_exti ... hrates.htm
http://planetextinction.com/documents/M ... rvival.pdf
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/2015/ ... -2015.html

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

There is around 105,000 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. Humans have put out less than 5,000 billion tons, to change the temperature 2*F at minimum, accounting for momentum. Well, if it was linear that would be another 42*F, but it is not. Remember water vapor and a few other HGHGs. So 44*F becomes 200*C. Increase over interglacial average, of only 10*F in a few hundred years is still too much for most life. People have to realize just how dangerous these methane hydrates are over a longer term than 10 years. We have less time than that to stop fossil fuel use and slash and burn ignorant farming, and turn green, plant trillions of trees, and reduce population almost as much as the crash will.
Ecocide is what it was called. I think it is also mass murder of all species. The suicide by over-indulgence, and done by clathrate gun.

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

According to Wayne's sources in the 'runaway' thread, we have been in runaway since 2007. Methane releases are going up geometrically, if you read my links.
I don't like the term clathrate gun, for the whole process. The clathrates explode out in various deposits at various times, increasing with time, but not all at once. The 50+GT ready to release is when the methane turnover effect is passed the tipping point of self generation or the completion of the positive feedback loop. You will see it, and maybe I will, too.
We can no more stop it than we can stop the poles melting. Some see a 50% hope in stopping Thermageddon to GTE, and slowing, then decreasing, CAGW to AGW, back to 350ppm CO2. Although the oceans are releasing large amounts of methane, at the present +1*F it dissolves to saturation, and it goes to the atmosphere explosively at +2*F or 1 to 5 pounds of kinetic pressure.
I consider a single formation of methane hydrate, suddenly releasing from a seaquake to sink any vessels above, is what I call the gun effect. It is the fastest releasing 50GT that will also be like a gun, heating the Arctic above the 6*C it already is, and geo-historically this is beyond the methane turnover point from records of PETM and the End Permian (5*C from other links).
Methane turnover is the better term, and is happening faster than at any point in geo-history. (back to wunderground, and away from wiki)

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

Michael G. O'Brien; Earth will still exist even without life. As new data and events happen, the trajectory can change. We once had a long interglacial from the fact the orbital perturbation and axis tilt wobble do not exactly always coincide close enough. So it is with this; "The next big chill may be overdue. If humans hadn’t boosted levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Earth’s next frosty bout of glacial growth probably would have already started, new research suggests.

For the last 11,700 years, Earth has been on a break between periods of ice expansion called glaciations. A similar interglacial period occurred around 790,000 years ago. A new climate reconstruction based on sediments from an ancient Italian lake shows that this historical interglacial lasted only about 10,800 years. The result suggests that the current interglacial should be wrapping up — but it’s not" https://www.sciencenews.org/.../next-ic ... -be-hold...

Next icy era may be on hold

Carbon emissions from humans may have postponed Earth’s next glaciation, new research suggests.


sciencenews.org
..
However, this time the axis tilt wobble is near maximum and so is the ellipticity of orbit, which would normally lead to increasing snow and nice and albedo change which cools the planet further and keeps it in an ice age until axis tilt minimum and orbital circularity coincide roughly. Volcanic events can change albedo and have an atmospheric cooling effect and ash fall changes albedo for more melt . If the population crash is triggered by a combination of due geologic events like Cascadia, La Palma, and Katla, then the emissions would also lower dramatically. Perhaps to the point that when Yellowstone goes in 2K+ years, it could trigger the ice age at a later date. Only if emissions are decreased enough within a decade or so, otherwise even mighty Yellowstone could not stop the GTE Events. IMEO
On the chance that Cascadia, La Palma, or Katla do not happen within a decade or so, the human population will crash from overpopulation and CAGW effects by the early 2040s, which is too late. It is possible that a nuclear war could put up enough aerosols to cool the planet and kill off much of humanity with nuclear winter and radiation. This could change the trajectory. A one year volcanic or nuclear winter would crash the population, but not take care of momentum, so ten years later it could be hotter than ever. It all depends on when it happens. Not nice events at all, but certainly better than a total methane turnover, and the 'Venus Effect'.
See the Methane Clathrate Gun Time Bomb on Facebook.com

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

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Potato chip enthusiast.

"Alaska’s Spring Is Becoming More Like California’s Summer

Climate change’s new normal is causing record-breaking heat and wildfire risk.

alaska temperature map
(Map: NOAA)
May 29, 2015 By Emily J. Gertz

Emily J. Gertz is TakePart's associate editor for environment and wildlife.

Following an abnormally warm winter, spring temperatures exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit across a broad swath of interior Alaska in May, breaking records for the earliest day with temperatures that high.

Eagle, a town east of Fairbanks with about 120 years’ worth of weather records, reported a daytime high of 91 degrees on May 23. This was the earliest day ever with a temperature of over 90 degrees and “smashed that location’s all-time record for May,” according to the National Weather Service.

“It was 30.1 degrees hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5 degrees), and 18.1 degrees warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year,” the agency reported, adding that as of May 29, daily temperatures in Eagle had set or tied 10 high-temperature records."
http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/05 ... pid=ait-fb

This goes right with it;
"From Siberia to British Columbia Arctic Wildfires Begin an Ominous Ignition

It’s abnormally warm today near Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territory. And the smell of smoke from massive fires to the west lingers in the air.

Temperatures there yesterday afternoon read 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Where I sat typing this blog in Gaithersburg, Maryland, it was a somewhat cooler 67. A north-south temperature flip-flop that has become all-too-common in recent years. A warming in the Arctic that sets the stage for gargantuan summer wildfires burning through some of the world’s greatest carbon stores. Vast and thawing permafrost deposits stretching in a great arc from Siberia through Alaska and on into Northern Canada. Immense loads of fuel for a newly forming ring of fire that is now an entirely human invention."
https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2 ... -ignition/

The question is only "which year will the Arctic tundra release its 52GTs of ready to erupt methane clathrate. Then it would only be a matter of a relatively short time geologically to release the other up to 5000GTs of methane in the permafrost and oceanic deposits. Not only is the melting permafrost and many hundreds of fires above the Arctic Circle a reaction to HGHGs, but soot from the fires is blocking solar heat but changing the albedo of the north to melt even more of the cap and ice sheets. So the first tipping point of open ocean warming in 2007 will be followed by the Arctic tundra initial release 2025-8, maybe even sooner. That will truly mark the beginning of the end of the "Anthropocene Epoch". Whether a war, or population crash from dollar or other currency failures, or geologic events of great disaster that are due, the crash will happen. After a certain point in the very near future, even a population crash of 95%, also reducing emissions 95%, will be too late to stop the trajectory to Global Terminal Extinction Events.
We should have started population reduction and quality control in the 1960s.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

"Sunday, May 31, 2015
Arctic Methane Skyrocketing

The map below shows observatories in the Arctic. ]]]MB"Clathrates as the new sword of Damocles? Really the level of alarmist clap trap here takes clap trap to a new level." Wouldn't that be wonderful if the measurements were back down to the safe 1250 range, instead of increasing with alarming surges. Clap trap, yeah, right{{{{

'Arctic methane skyrocketing' is the title of a video by Paul Beckwith discussing recent rises in methane levels in the Arctic.

Paul's description: "I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behavior will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years.""
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05 ... eting.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2ckkxEnWpA

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

Things that should have been done long ago, never were, like this;
http://www.cairco.org/news/how-1992-mor ... n-majority

Then necessary HGHG reductions probably just will not be enough or in time;
"Few economists are as versed in the global diplomatic effort to combat climate change as Nicholas Stern of Britain.

So it was particularly distressing to hear him say, at a debate in New York a few weeks ago, that the international effort to achieve a worldwide climate agreement in Paris next December is already falling short on its most critical goal. The various pledges by nations to cut their emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, he noted, will not be enough to prevent the Earth’s temperature from rising beyond the level scientists consider the tipping point to devastating environmental disruption."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/03/busin ... ience&_r=1

And we still have butt sucks in denial, LIKE "Milton banana"

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

This is astounding!
"A three-century lce loss in one day in the Arctic

Arctic Sea Ice Area Drops 320,000 Square Kilometers in Just One Day

Robertscribbler,

18 June, 2015

Sea ice researchers like to talk a lot about what they call ‘Century Drops.’ Days when Arctic sea ice area or extent values fall more than 100,000 square kilometers. In the past, daily Century Drops were relatively rare — with steepest rates of loss occurring during late June through early August and featuring, perhaps, a handful of days in which 24 hour losses exceeded 100,000 square kilometers. But the record melt years of 2007 and 2012 showed a proliferation of daily drops that exceeded the 100,000 square kilometers daily threshold.

Well, a couple of days ago a three Century Drop showed up in the Cyrosphere Today measure. And it may just be something we’ve never seen before. At the least, it’s an event that’s pretty amazingly rare — or it should be, without the heat added to the Arctic by human fossil fuel emissions.

On Tuesday evening, the Cryosphere Today site showed Arctic sea ice at about 8,966,000 square kilometers. The next day the measure stood at about 8,646,000 square kilometers. That’s an extraordinary loss of 320,000 square kilometers in just one day."
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/201 ... ay-in.html

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

Fires are major in Alaska now, as they were before in Canada, and Siberia. Because of denialists and the constant debate that shouldn't be, not enough HGHG decrease, and too late. The clathrates blow out 52GTs of methane 2025-8 or even before. Then it will be exponential, which is something dummies do not get. Argumentative denialist bananas with astounding stupidity and lack of moral character.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/201 ... numum.html
The graph that shows actual Arctic sea ice volume, shows that it will reach the zero line 2021-2.
http://gtnp.arcticportal.org/
this was the source of some of the data. Both have a lot of graphs, and are current.

Well, 2021-2 the clathrate gun goes off in the Siberian continental shelf deposits. Actually it goes off with less than 250 feet of ice over the methane hydrate clathrate deposits. So 2020-21. That is only 5 or 6 years. Which correlates with other overpopulation problems that first collapse the economy, then the ecology, with increasing malevolent migrations, disease, malnutrition, and more warfare.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

realclimate certainly isn't looking at paleoclimate evidence of the methane turnover reaction. They do not refer to PETM or the Permian Great Dying. The loss of the Arctic ice is in real data, and so is methane releasing. Methane hydrate requires pressure and freezing cold, which will disappear when the ice is gone off the Siberian Shelf. Those of us alive in six years will see what begins to happen with exponential warming. Even idiots will see, but it will be far too late to stop. Some of the Global Terminal Extinction Events will happen after mid century, but right now we have one indicator----the explosive expansion of jellyfish. Crossing the tipping point of open ocean warming in the Arctic was 2007, and the acceleration of loss and warming since, also show indications of a methane self release 'event'.
realclimate boffins have been in denial, along with the UN. It is natural for humans to deny awful things like the population crash and the extinction of most or all species from Earth because of human over-pollution from overpopulation.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf: towards further assessment of permafrost-related methane fluxes and role of sea ice

Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Valentin Sergienko, Leopold Lobkovsky, Vladimir Yusupov, Anatoly Salyuk, Alexander Salomatin, Denis Chernykh, Denis Kosmach, Gleb Panteleev, Dmitry Nicolsky, Vladimir Samarkin, Samantha Joye, Alexander Charkin, Oleg Dudarev, Alexander Meluzov, Orjan Gustafsson
Published 7 September 2015.DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0451
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 40451.long
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist
http://paulbeckwith.net/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRW45eaw28g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNSatd1ZDTs

We are definitely nearing an abrupt phase of malevolent climate change, and probably even rapid decarbonization with its rapid population decline, will not be enough in time. That's IF there is any time left to stop the progression of Global Terminal Extinction Events.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein